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10 27

2018年我国纸箱行业洗牌的主观需求

  • 发布日期: 2018-10-27

进入9月份,涨价函亦如16、17年一样如期而至,同期《央视财经》频道也按时报导了纸业行情诚如申银万国证券分析师观点,一致看涨,只是涨价幅度和盈利能力会比往年稍逊!然而今年不如往昔,行情始终不见抬头。到底是钻地弹般如期炸响开启前2年的旺季涨价模式,还是如哑弹一样“嗖”的一声落地无痕继续2018年的滞胀模式“涨不上,不想跌”?
 
In September, the letter of price increase arrived as scheduled as 16 or 17 years. Meanwhile, CCTV Financial Channel also reported on time that the paper industry was sincere as Shenyin Wanguo Securities analyst's point of view, unanimously bullish, but the price increase and profitability will be slightly weaker than in previous years. However, this year is not as good as in the past, the market has never seen a rise. Is it the high-season price pattern of the first two years before the opening of the bomb, or the stagflation pattern of the 2018 "not up, do not want to fall" like a dumb bullet?
 
 
 
【预测】涨价时间节点:9月17日
 
[forecast] price increase time node: September 17th
 
 
 
重要观察时间节点是:2018年9月17日。因为17日开始的一周是中秋节3天假期前的最后一周,也是国庆7天长假的倒数第二周,为了应付这两个节日的交货和备库,可能掀起一股备库的小高潮,从而给市场造成一个需求大增旺季确实来临的印象,原纸厂、纸板厂会利用这个节点的订单饱和状态拉高整个需求的热度,为迅速涨价奠定基础。
 
The important observation time node is September 17, 2018. Because the week that begins on the 17th is the last week before the three-day holidays of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the penultimate week of the seven-day National Day holiday, in order to cope with the delivery and warehousing of the two festivals, a small upsurge of warehousing may be set off, thus giving the market the impression that the booming season is indeed approaching. The order saturation state of the node increases the heat of the whole demand, laying the foundation for rapid price increase.
 
 
 
 
 
7天长假过后就是进入双11电商备货高峰期,一方面是因为备货增加需求,拉动订单给涨价做支撑,另外一方面就是从事电商包装的企业刻意放量到纸板厂拉高价格,实现低价买纸板高价卖纸箱的策略。
 
After seven days of long vacation is entering the double 11 e-commerce reserve peak period, on the one hand because of increased demand for stock, pull orders to support the price increase, on the other hand is engaged in e-commerce packaging enterprises deliberately put to the cardboard mill to raise prices, to achieve low-priced buy cardboard high-priced carton strategy.
 
 
 
所以17日开始的这一周是重要的观察点,一旦纸价拉动一周成功,基本就意味旺季一波涨价能够成功,否则错过这个时间点拖到节后基本就难以找到合适的机会拉升了。
 
So the week that begins on the 17th is an important observation point. Once paper prices pull through the week, it basically means that a wave of price rises in the peak season will succeed. Otherwise, it will be difficult to find the right opportunity to pull up after the festival if you miss this point.
 
 
 
不利于涨价的几个要素
 
Several factors that are not conducive to price increase
 
 
 
需求:到目前为止还没有看到需求增长的迹象,尤其是中美贸易战持续加温导致的外贸订单减少,以及由于居民存款减少导致的消费信心不足引起的内需拉动不足,再加上今年中小企业生存环境压力变大导致企业效益不稳,进一步抑制内需消费。
 
Demand: So far, we have not seen any signs of demand growth, especially the decrease of foreign trade orders caused by the warming trade war between China and the United States, and the insufficient stimulation of domestic demand caused by the lack of consumer confidence caused by the reduction of household deposits. In addition, the growing pressure on the living environment of small and medium-sized enterprises this year has led to the instability of enterprise efficiency. One step is to curb domestic consumption.
 
 
 
库存:由于产能扩大、需求减少、国外原纸进口增加等叠加因素导致造纸厂库存压货很大,直接导致涨价底气不足,不敢轻易涨价,以免做了同行的嫁衣。高库存对造纸厂的压力是两方面的一是周转空间不足二是资金周转速度放慢增加运营成本,去库存就成了短期的急迫事项。
 
Inventory: As a result of capacity expansion, demand reduction, foreign raw paper import increase and other superposition factors lead to a large inventory of paper mills, which directly lead to insufficient bottom gas, dare not easily raise prices, in order to avoid doing the same trade wedding dress. The pressure of high inventory on paper mills is two aspects, one is the lack of working space, the other is the slowing down of capital turnover to increase operating costs, to inventory has become a short-term urgent matter.
 
 
 
产能:不仅仅是造纸厂的产能过剩,就是纸板厂和纸箱厂相对于需求也是严重过剩。相对于造纸厂和纸箱厂的产能过剩相对可控来说,纸板厂的产能严重过剩,直接导致绝大部分二级厂在订单已经不足的情况下,绝无动涨价的念头,不跌已经是最大诉求。只要纸板厂的价格涨不上来,造纸厂的涨价就非常困难,虽然纸厂掌握定价权,但是没有顺畅的价格传导机制,再怎么涨都难以实现。
 
Capacity: Not only is the paper mill overcapacity, but also the cardboard and carton mills are seriously overcapacity relative to demand. Compared with the paper mill and carton factory overcapacity is relatively controllable, the serious overcapacity of the paperboard factory, which directly leads to the majority of secondary plants in the case of insufficient orders, the idea of no price increase, not falling has been the greatest demand. As long as the price of the paperboard mill can not rise, it is very difficult for the paper mill to raise the price. Although the paper mill has the pricing power, it is difficult to achieve any further increase without smooth price transmission mechanism.
 
 
 
【行业洗牌】老的市场格局被打破,曾经占巨大市场份额的企业失去优势,整个市场会重新分配。通常在行业有技术性革新的时候会出现。
 
[Industry shuffle] The old market pattern has been broken, and companies that once had a huge market share have lost their advantage, and the whole market will be redistributed. Usually when there are technological innovations in the industry.
 
 
 
1、重新确立各自在市场上的地位
 
1, reestablish their respective positions in the market.
 
 
 
2、行业洗牌不仅仅是行业内重现排位而已,行业洗牌一般都是在某一行业出现新技术,或是整个渠道管理出现了巨大的变化,或是行业生产销售出现了新的东西,这种新的变化可以对整个行业产生巨大的影响,从而应到原来的行业排位,出现了新的行业领头羊,原来市场霸主可能会受到影响甚至退出市场。当新技术有足够力量时,可以创造出新的行业,所对应的原来行业会逐渐消亡。
 
2. Industry shuffling is not only the reappearance of ranking within the industry, industry shuffling is generally a new technology in a certain industry, or the entire channel management has undergone tremendous changes, or the industry production and sales of new things, this new change can have a huge impact on the entire industry, thus corresponding to the original. Industry ranking, the emergence of new industry leaders, the original market hegemony may be affected or even withdraw from the market. When new technologies are powerful enough to create new industries, the corresponding industries will gradually disappear.
 
 
 
从以上含义解释,纸箱行业也具备了洗牌的客观要素,第一个要素“行业整个渠道管理出现了巨大变化”,第二个要素“行业生产销售出现了新东西”。依据相应的客观要素产生了行业洗牌的可能性情况下,行业中具备洗牌的从业者以及行业新生事物的创造者就有了主观上洗牌的冲动。
 
From the above explanation, the carton industry also has the objective elements of shuffling, the first element "the industry has undergone tremendous changes in channel management," the second element "industry production and sales have emerged new things". According to the corresponding objective factors have produced the possibility of industry shuffle, the industry with shuffle practitioners and the creation of new things in the industry have a subjective shuffle impulse.
 
 
 
洗牌的客观要素
 
Objective factors of shuffling
 
 
 
洗牌的客观要素很多,如果以2016年9月为行业改变为节点时间的话(以下简称节点),前后发生了很多事情具备洗牌的客观要求,如果不能进行一次有效的快速洗牌,会对行业未来发展产生恶性循环的效果。
 
There are many objective elements of shuffling. If September 2016 is the time for the industry to change to the node (hereinafter referred to as the node), a lot of things have happened around the shuffling objective requirements, if not an effective rapid shuffle, the industry will have a vicious cycle of future development.
 
 
 
产能:节点前造纸、纸板、纸箱三个核心产能环节中,造纸这个环节因为众多中小型造纸厂低制造成本、低环保成本、低人工成本从而形成低价原纸,长期压制着大型造纸厂的销售价格导致大厂难以有扩大产能空间。节点后因为国家供给侧改革、环保严格管理、外废进口配额的再分配倾向大纸厂,使得大纸厂具备了获得较高收益的机会,有了大幅提升的获利空间,就迅速高规格、高标准扩大产能,进一步压缩小纸厂的销售能力,小厂失去销售能力自然就会失去产能。节点前纸板、纸箱上下游之间的产能基本适配,处于基本平衡,节点后因为利益分配失衡,纸板、纸箱之间出现明显纸板供大于求。
 
Capacity: Paper making, cardboard and carton are the three core production links before the node. Paper making is a low-cost base paper because of the low manufacturing cost, low environmental protection cost and low labor cost of many small and medium-sized paper mills. It has long suppressed the sales price of large paper mills, which makes it difficult for large mills to expand production capacity. Because of the reform of the supply side of the country, strict management of environmental protection and redistribution of foreign waste import quota, large paper mills have the opportunity to obtain higher profits, and have the profit margin to be greatly improved, they will rapidly expand production capacity with high specifications and standards, further reduce the sales capacity of small paper mills, and small paper mills will lose their capacity. Sales capacity will naturally lose productivity. The production capacity of cardboard and carton in front of the node is basically in a balance between the upstream and downstream. After the node, the supply of cardboard exceeds the demand obviously because of the imbalance of profit distribution.


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