In September, the letter of price increase arrived as scheduled as 16 or 17 years. Meanwhile, CCTV Financial Channel also reported on time that the paper industry was sincere as Shenyin Wanguo Securities analyst's point of view, unanimously bullish, but the price increase and profitability will be slightly weaker than in previous years. However, this year is not as good as in the past, the market has never seen a rise. Is it the high-season price pattern of the first two years before the opening of the bomb, or the stagflation pattern of the 2018 "not up, do not want to fall" like a dumb bullet?
[forecast] price increase time node: September 17th
The important observation time node is September 17, 2018. Because the week that begins on the 17th is the last week before the three-day holidays of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the penultimate week of the seven-day National Day holiday, in order to cope with the delivery and warehousing of the two festivals, a small upsurge of warehousing may be set off, thus giving the market the impression that the booming season is indeed approaching. The order saturation state of the node increases the heat of the whole demand, laying the foundation for rapid price increase.
After seven days of long vacation is entering the double 11 e-commerce reserve peak period, on the one hand because of increased demand for stock, pull orders to support the price increase, on the other hand is engaged in e-commerce packaging enterprises deliberately put to the cardboard mill to raise prices, to achieve low-priced buy cardboard high-priced carton strategy.
So the week that begins on the 17th is an important observation point. Once paper prices pull through the week, it basically means that a wave of price rises in the peak season will succeed. Otherwise, it will be difficult to find the right opportunity to pull up after the festival if you miss this point.
Several factors that are not conducive to price increase
Demand: So far, we have not seen any signs of demand growth, especially the decrease of foreign trade orders caused by the warming trade war between China and the United States, and the insufficient stimulation of domestic demand caused by the lack of consumer confidence caused by the reduction of household deposits. In addition, the growing pressure on the living environment of small and medium-sized enterprises this year has led to the instability of enterprise efficiency. One step is to curb domestic consumption.
Inventory: As a result of capacity expansion, demand reduction, foreign raw paper import increase and other superposition factors lead to a large inventory of paper mills, which directly lead to insufficient bottom gas, dare not easily raise prices, in order to avoid doing the same trade wedding dress. The pressure of high inventory on paper mills is two aspects, one is the lack of working space, the other is the slowing down of capital turnover to increase operating costs, to inventory has become a short-term urgent matter.
Capacity: Not only is the paper mill overcapacity, but also the cardboard and carton mills are seriously overcapacity relative to demand. Compared with the paper mill and carton factory overcapacity is relatively controllable, the serious overcapacity of the paperboard factory, which directly leads to the majority of secondary plants in the case of insufficient orders, the idea of no price increase, not falling has been the greatest demand. As long as the price of the paperboard mill can not rise, it is very difficult for the paper mill to raise the price. Although the paper mill has the pricing power, it is difficult to achieve any further increase without smooth price transmission mechanism.
[Industry shuffle] The old market pattern has been broken, and companies that once had a huge market share have lost their advantage, and the whole market will be redistributed. Usually when there are technological innovations in the industry.
1, reestablish their respective positions in the market.
2. Industry shuffling is not only the reappearance of ranking within the industry, industry shuffling is generally a new technology in a certain industry, or the entire channel management has undergone tremendous changes, or the industry production and sales of new things, this new change can have a huge impact on the entire industry, thus corresponding to the original. Industry ranking, the emergence of new industry leaders, the original market hegemony may be affected or even withdraw from the market. When new technologies are powerful enough to create new industries, the corresponding industries will gradually disappear.
From the above explanation, the carton industry also has the objective elements of shuffling, the first element "the industry has undergone tremendous changes in channel management," the second element "industry production and sales have emerged new things". According to the corresponding objective factors have produced the possibility of industry shuffle, the industry with shuffle practitioners and the creation of new things in the industry have a subjective shuffle impulse.
Objective factors of shuffling
There are many objective elements of shuffling. If September 2016 is the time for the industry to change to the node (hereinafter referred to as the node), a lot of things have happened around the shuffling objective requirements, if not an effective rapid shuffle, the industry will have a vicious cycle of future development.
Capacity: Paper making, cardboard and carton are the three core production links before the node. Paper making is a low-cost base paper because of the low manufacturing cost, low environmental protection cost and low labor cost of many small and medium-sized paper mills. It has long suppressed the sales price of large paper mills, which makes it difficult for large mills to expand production capacity. Because of the reform of the supply side of the country, strict management of environmental protection and redistribution of foreign waste import quota, large paper mills have the opportunity to obtain higher profits, and have the profit margin to be greatly improved, they will rapidly expand production capacity with high specifications and standards, further reduce the sales capacity of small paper mills, and small paper mills will lose their capacity. Sales capacity will naturally lose productivity. The production capacity of cardboard and carton in front of the node is basically in a balance between the upstream and downstream. After the node, the supply of cardboard exceeds the demand obviously because of the imbalance of profit distribution.